Next generation (2025, 2026+) BEVs will be the tipping point for the auto industry.
When BEVs have 500 mile+ per charge capacity, charging infrastructure becomes abundant, and 350kW+ charging is ubiquitous (<15 min recharges), there will no longer be any value proposition for ICEs whatsoever (outside of hobbyists).
Amazing how fast the change is happening.
Agree or disagree?
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The next generation is going to be Tesla if the Legacy automakers keep capitulating. At least Ford is attempting to disclose how expensive it is to get beyond off the shelf engineering design. The Ram truck hybrid (ICE generator/EV Drivetrain) hopefully will be worth more than a crap given how the range on electric trucks have been anemic.
Easily accessible fast charging will be the tipping point. Whether you have 300 mile range or 600 mile range won’t matter.
500+ mile range isn’t going to be the goal for a very long time (likely never a goal, but maybe a product of advancing tech in the future).
Drivers vastly over estimate the amount of range that they actually need. The percentage people who drive passenger vehicles 500 miles per day is nearly 0.
200-300mi range vehicles will continue to dominate the market, with the focus being on reducing material costs and increasing charging time (while also improving the fast charging infrastructure).
300 miles is fine for the vast majority. Next is about charging speeds and charger availability.
Honestly 250 is fine if the charging infrastructure gets built up.
But prices will have to come down. EVs are cheaper to build but we’re paying for the giant batteries and R&D. At some point the cost profile will be so much better than iCE cars that the market will flip itself.
Yup… upvoted. Range is moot because most people can’t sit still for 5-6 hours at a stretch… or shouldn’t. Current EV’s with 300 mile range are more than good enough and frankly I’ve not had a problem with my ~220 mile Polestar 2 even despite multiple cross-country trips (600 miles or thereabouts).
The charging infrastructure needs to be a LOT better and a lot more reliable. The compute in most of our cars or on our phones is more than enough to properly plan a route but it does assume the charger is working or working at a decent speed. My last trip I avoided Electrify America like the plague despite still having free charging from them because every EA charger I’ve been to in the last 6 months seems to max out at 80kw when I had previously seen 155kw consistently on those exact same chargers.
Charging speed is also a bit of an issue with the current crop of EV’s, but not nearly as bad as people think. I took to taking shorter spans between stops at lower SoC on a recent trip too and when I was able to keep my charging about 150kw it made my trip slightly shorter than what I had been doing previously. But there are still too many massive “charging deserts” in the US (try driving from Michigan down to Indianapolis and see how much fun it can be with zero fast charging between the Ohio/Indiana/Michigan border and Indianapolis)
Just having 500 mile range EVs available is the tipping point. Most people don’t need and won’t get that but seeding the idea into the heads of the general populace is the key here.
It’s just like how I think we need big, tall signs over every fast charging location. My nav is better than any sign for finding a charger, sure. But those signs aren’t for me: they’re for the millions out there who still say “I don’t see any chargers around here”.
We don’t need 500 mile range EVs so that everybody can have 500 mile range EVs. We need 500 mile range EVs to prove to everybody that they can have an EV.
A true 300, in real life situation, would be fine . I get about 250 miles in my “330 mile” Model Y.
This
Some new ICE cars don’t even reliably get 300 miles. My partners new Honda Civic when filled to full only reads 265 on particularly bad stop-and-go traffic days. Even though it supposedly gets up to 350 in the city, or 400 on the highway.
Having driven from Florida to Ohio in it, it definitely isn’t 400 between fill ups, maybe if we’re only doing 60mph, but considering the speed limit is 70 and everyone moves close to 80+, we didn’t see that. 300 was probably closer to what we saw, though we were getting a respectable 35+ mpg on the way up as a whole.
Charging infrastructure is not ready for that. Probably better to increase range for the cars so even if charging isn’t that convenient, it only happens once every month or something.
Your EV will charge faster if 300 miles of range falls within 20-80% state of charge
Yeah and that means 500 miles 100% to 0%.
CATL is claiming their Gen 2 sodium ion battery will be $44/kWh and 200wh/kg. That is LFP lithium territory. Moderate to low horsepower economy cars will flood the market. There are a LOT of people who don’t give 2 shits about speed. They just want a reliable daily driver.
And the batteries operate from -20 to +60C. That reduces the thermal management needs drastically (cheaper and lighter) and they are really safe (less fire protection needed).
The 3500 cycle counts should put them into the 20 year durability range.
Cheap cars, even if they aren’t super fast will put serious downwards economic pressures on the rest of the cars sold. It used to be that driving a cheap car was miserable. Buzzy and loud. Now even a cheap EV is nice
Nonsense & FUD:
• Nonsense: There’s nothing indicating any of this is about to happen. • FUD: There’s no indication 500mile+ range or 350kW+ charging are the limiting factor in BEV sales. PRICE is much bigger factor.BEVs won’t have that range. Range = energy / consumption.
• Energy: there’s no reason to think energy density will be double AND that high density batteries become affordable in the coming decade. • Consumption: Air drag & rolling resistance wont get significantly lower AKA general consumption can drop to current Tesla Model 3 levels. • Charging: energy must be doubled for your range prediction. You think that will happen AND charging speeds will double AND batteries will become affordable… Nope.Sorry but slow incremental steps is what’s happening, no revolutionary doubling numbers….
Adoption of new technology can sometimes play out like this.
Initial surge of early adopters who will take a risk on new technology.
Then a cooling off until prices are adjusted to encourage the next wave of buyers.
Then mass marketing to entice the rest.
Critical mass will happen and then it will become the norm.
We are probably heading into the second phase now and that’s when manufacturers and policy makers can really nudge this forward. Cost and risk (resale, range anxiety, infrastructure, longevity - whether justified or not) will need to be addressed now.
It’s possible Norway (the usual example) has accelerated this sequence.
The key point being that a slowdown after the first phase is normal but is often reported as problem or indication of failure etc.
People say they want 500 mile EVs but they don’t understand that it’s like carrying multiple boat anchors in your car at all times for less than 0.1% of trips. Like using a sledgehammer instead of a screwdriver.
Just use a public charger!
500 mile range is nothing short of silly and is completely arbitrary.
Average driving in US is 37miles/day. Most people charge each evening after that 37 mile run.
nothing short of silly and is completely arbitrary.
Have you seen what we buy in the USA? You’ve just defined the most popular type of vehicle here, “silly & completely arbitrary”. Look at the size & expense of our pickup trucks.
Seriously, though, people will make their decision on a $50k+ vehicle on the road trips they take less than 4 times a year. If an EV doesn’t handle those longer trips with the same ease as gasoline, they’re going to get held back.
I work in home improvement sales and drive 150-250 miles a day (occasionally more). I have a Mach-E premium awd with the extended range battery. I charge to 100% every night (which I know is frowned upon), and my next EV I’ll be looking for something with 400+ miles of range, as occasionally I’m out of juice before the day is done.
It’s absurd and excessive with current tech. That like nearly doubling the capacity of many current EVs like the Bolt. Very few people need that much range. People need like 300 miles IMO to get over range anxiety and that’s still excessive for the vast majority of driving they will actually do. We need more affordable EVs with that sort of range, not expensive 500 mile range EVs.
Having a single charging standard in North America will be the tipping point. Charging speed is more important than range.
Yeah, they really ought to work harder on that. Can’t the government just come in and pick CCS and tell Tesla to get in line?
No, I haven’t seen any EV news in the last 6 months. Why do you ask?
Tesla already was and is the exponential tipping point. Personally I think 350 miles of range is ideal, and already here with super fast charging already. This gives you enough to go far out and camp for a few days and make it back to charging infrastructure for most situations. And we have 400+ mile range EVs already. People are quickly realizing it, hence why sales are up 20-100% YOY every year. I do hope that all the manufacturers get the picture and are designing better EVs too, unlike what the “news” is lying about.
Charging infrastructure saturation will be the focus before affordable 400+ mile ranges
It’s less about range and more about infrastructure and charging speed.
Right now, Hyundai is killing it with charge speed. 18 minutes to go from 20-80% soc? Wild. Imagine we get that down to 9 mins for things like that?
They way I see it, to get more people interested in EVs/make them more mainstream you need three things in this order.
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High powered Chargers. More of them. NACS adoption will help greatly with this, but still we need more chargers in general that are at that 350kw out put range. More of those means less range anxiety on trips.
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Faster charging speed. No one really wants to sit around for awhile and charge. You can negate the feeling of waiting by doing bathroom breaks and getting food, but for longer trips having the option to top off and go, like an ice would be nice. Also being able to charge faster means less cars waiting around for people to come back and unplug to free a space. So we need more cars that can do that 20-80% soc in 18 mins like Hyundai cars can. Obviously, if we can do it faster, that’s better but still.
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Range. 350 miles is honestly enough for most people. More is fine, but if you have lots of fast chargers around then you don’t need as high of a range. But people like more range and it decreases anxiety.
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Solar. This is extra, but would also help if solar was cheaper. Cheaper prices or more incentives for using it would help increase the use of solar, and more people might think “hey, I’ve got solar and now my cars home charging energy use can be negated by daily solar charging gains.
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From everything I’ve read lately Auto manufacturers are backing off on EV production.
For everyday driving 2-400km range is good enough for me. And 90% of the EV drivers I know is okay with the current state… Of course progress is good I’m not disagreeing on that. But here electric installations is good and it is no problem getting a home charger.
For the last 10% and myself when I need to go longer trips and cross country because of work. I don’t need 1000km range, I would be okay with faster charging and shorter range between charges(mainly because of queue in vacation season).
If every charger would supply 800volt DC I think xpeng is pretty close to winning this atm… for now.