Next generation (2025, 2026+) BEVs will be the tipping point for the auto industry.
When BEVs have 500 mile+ per charge capacity, charging infrastructure becomes abundant, and 350kW+ charging is ubiquitous (<15 min recharges), there will no longer be any value proposition for ICEs whatsoever (outside of hobbyists).
Amazing how fast the change is happening.
Agree or disagree?
Adoption of new technology can sometimes play out like this.
Initial surge of early adopters who will take a risk on new technology.
Then a cooling off until prices are adjusted to encourage the next wave of buyers.
Then mass marketing to entice the rest.
Critical mass will happen and then it will become the norm.
We are probably heading into the second phase now and that’s when manufacturers and policy makers can really nudge this forward. Cost and risk (resale, range anxiety, infrastructure, longevity - whether justified or not) will need to be addressed now.
It’s possible Norway (the usual example) has accelerated this sequence.
The key point being that a slowdown after the first phase is normal but is often reported as problem or indication of failure etc.