I’m sure we will get more news as the situation develops but all signs point to this being a very bad development. Hopefully the humanitarian catastrophe can be avoided or somewhat mitigated.

Taking a broader historic view at the situation i want to point out that this is a unique case of us getting a view of an alternate history scenario, namely we may see what would have happened in the situation with the Donbass had Russia not acted and intervened the way it did.

Kiev was preparing to launch just such an operation in late 2021/early 2022 with the aim of fully re-establishing control over the rebellious Donbass republics, and if successful of subsequently carrying out comprehensive ethnic cleansing. In both cases large armies sufficient to overrun the much weaker army of a breakaway region were amassed and the “anti-terrorism” justification was used.

The crucial difference lies in how the nation which understood itself as the protector of the breakaway ethnic group reacted: Russia pre-empted the Ukrainian attack on the Donbass by recognizing the independence of the two republics, then accepting the call for help received from these republics in defending themselves from the impending and ongoing attacks.

Armenia by contrast has refused to recognize the independence of Artsakh and as such has abandoned their fellow Armenians in that region to their fate. Because the Armenian government still recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, the hands of their historic ally Russia, the only ones who would have been capable of helping the militarily weak Armenia against the much stronger Azerbaijan are effectively tied. They can only do so much in their role as peacekeepers

Iran, though on very good terms with Armenia, also recognizes Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over N-K and will not intervene unless the Armenian Zangezur corridor (a vital national interest for Iran) is threatened.

Sadly it seems the political leadership of Armenia have decided to sacrifice their compatriots in Artsakh, exploiting this tragedy as an opportunity to discredit Russia and justify pursuing closer military and geopolitical alignment with the US.

The irony is that the US, as well as their allies “Israel” and Turkey, are and will continue to be firmly on Azerbaijan’s side, as it is much more geopolitically valuable to them than Armenia (for various reasons such as oil/gas, position vs. Iran, pan-Turkism, etc.).

Right now it is still possible for Azerbaijan (at the “request” of the US/EU) to decide to suddenly stop before incurring too much bad PR, judging that the goal of creating enough uncertainty over Russia’s ability to keep the peace has been achieved. This would enable Yerevan to crank up the rhetoric persuading Armenians of the necessity of the geopolitical realignment.

The ethnic cleansing would still be achieved but over a longer period of time and with less overtly military means that are too visible to the international audience. Instead of evicting them all in one big military operation the pressure would slowly be ratchetted up until life is made unbearable enough for the people to simply leave. In this i’m sure Baku will receive lessons and training from their Israeli allies.