Next generation (2025, 2026+) BEVs will be the tipping point for the auto industry.
When BEVs have 500 mile+ per charge capacity, charging infrastructure becomes abundant, and 350kW+ charging is ubiquitous (<15 min recharges), there will no longer be any value proposition for ICEs whatsoever (outside of hobbyists).
Amazing how fast the change is happening.
Agree or disagree?
The tipping point has already begun. Range and charging speed increases are less important than availability of chargers, both DCFC and Level 2 chargers for condos and apartments.
Cost is the major driver in two areas. While the cost of a new EV is in the range of an average new ICE vehicle, there is very little available on the lower price end and the most significant lower price EV has been discontinued. It was discontinued for good reason, cost of production. Key to continuing up the S-curve is lower price vehicles at volume. This means manufacturing the vehicles at a profit. Starting out selling vehicles at a loss as you become established is common, but you can’t do this at volume.
Many/most/all of the ICE OEMs are supporting their EV line losses from their ICE profits. There is a very real time limit on the ability to continue doing that as ICE sales decline. If the EVs don’t become profitable on their own, something will break. Either the company will go rapidly bankrupt, or the company will drop back to ICE only and slowly fade to a specialized shadow of itself.
My personal prediction is that in a mere two years, the future is EV will be undeniable by even the most ardent.