I keep hearing statements like this, but they’re not backed up by data. Polls are rarely “wrong” and aggregators such as 338Canada do a pretty good job of predicting local races. While there are are some historically bad misses (many pollsters for the 2016 US Presidential Election), IMHO the biggest issues is people not understanding what polls actually mean, and the media doing a terrible job of explaining them.
My tepid take, every poll should report with error bars, would help somewhat, like I know they report moe but still, visual would be best to convey that quickly.
Doesn’t help that in my experience, people just don’t have a great grasp on statistics, was a common complaint of a statistician friend I worked with for years. As to why, stats specific courses weren’t required when I went to highschool, I hope that’s changed.
Also the 2024 election. Also the bc provincial election last year. Pretty sure the last federal election polls Also were wrong. Polls are instantly biased by the type of people that answer polls, or the audience that the polls are based on.
The polls were good in the last federal election. It’s just that the Liberals took the question of “who would you vote for if there were an election today?” a little too literally and called a snap election. People didn’t like that and they dropped in the polls immediately because of that bonehead decision. The election result wasn’t a surprise for anyone following the polls.
I’ll take anyone except the Liberal cabinet. Imagine Sean Fraser getting his job back when even Carney himself renounced his entire tenure saying it dramatically hurt the poor and increased wealth inequality. Or Freeland as a finance minister who landed 20b over her own fiscal guardrail. These people were rightfully disliked.
Can’t fathom the idea of another liberal government, regulations after regulations making the tiniest tasks unnecessarily complex then, once people settle with the regulations they go and pull the red carpet out on ya a couple years later.
You’d rather have a guy notwithstanding your rights away just so that your little hobby can be a little more easier for you. And if that makes it easier for someone to massacre school children, you’re cool with that too as long as you have a little less paperwork for a fucking hobby.
I really hope the polls are right and we don’t get a conservative government. But polls are notoriously wrong now.
I keep hearing statements like this, but they’re not backed up by data. Polls are rarely “wrong” and aggregators such as 338Canada do a pretty good job of predicting local races. While there are are some historically bad misses (many pollsters for the 2016 US Presidential Election), IMHO the biggest issues is people not understanding what polls actually mean, and the media doing a terrible job of explaining them.
My tepid take, every poll should report with error bars, would help somewhat, like I know they report moe but still, visual would be best to convey that quickly.
Doesn’t help that in my experience, people just don’t have a great grasp on statistics, was a common complaint of a statistician friend I worked with for years. As to why, stats specific courses weren’t required when I went to highschool, I hope that’s changed.
Also the 2024 election. Also the bc provincial election last year. Pretty sure the last federal election polls Also were wrong. Polls are instantly biased by the type of people that answer polls, or the audience that the polls are based on.
The polls were good in the last federal election. It’s just that the Liberals took the question of “who would you vote for if there were an election today?” a little too literally and called a snap election. People didn’t like that and they dropped in the polls immediately because of that bonehead decision. The election result wasn’t a surprise for anyone following the polls.
Almost all of the polls were within the MOE. The polls said it was a toss up, and it was.
The results for both of these were very close to what the polls predicted. Not sure why you felt they were off?
Very true, which is the job of pollsters to adjust for. And, as I’ve said, I think they are pretty good at their jobs.
I’ll take anyone except the Liberal cabinet. Imagine Sean Fraser getting his job back when even Carney himself renounced his entire tenure saying it dramatically hurt the poor and increased wealth inequality. Or Freeland as a finance minister who landed 20b over her own fiscal guardrail. These people were rightfully disliked.
Can’t fathom the idea of another liberal government, regulations after regulations making the tiniest tasks unnecessarily complex then, once people settle with the regulations they go and pull the red carpet out on ya a couple years later.
Firearms owners know how this feels.
You’d rather have a guy notwithstanding your rights away just so that your little hobby can be a little more easier for you. And if that makes it easier for someone to massacre school children, you’re cool with that too as long as you have a little less paperwork for a fucking hobby.
Single issue voters are the death of freedom.