This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
What do you think guys? After yet another week of thruth social posts and back-to-back statements from both parties - will this be the week where we see either an escalation or an agreement? Now that the US regime is back from China, are they more inclined to pursue military action or will this just continue to fissle out without much progress?
It is obvious that both sides are quite far from eachother (mostly stemming from the US continuing to push for maximalist concessions), still the most immediate suffering seems to be felt by the people in Lebanon, Palestine and Iran.
It’s a game of chicken right now. The frozen conflict can wreak havoc on domestic stability in Iran if it goes on too long and if the imperialists find ways to tighten the siege (like the blockade). At the same time, the oil situation is dangerous for the US. Yes, the US has strategic reserves to ride this out a little bit. Yes the US can buffer with Venezuelan oil and other sources. But these things can only go so far. Other commodities like helium and fertilizer will also cause huge problems for the US.
But the US has the greatest ability of the many parties involved to obtain things they need. So the US is probably calculating that they can win the game of chicken. I don’t think they believe they can open the straight via force. They know that Iran can mine the waterway and that guerilla fighters could maintain unacceptable threat levels. So I actually don’t think the US will resume hostilities.
I do think Israel is trying to take advantage of the fact that Iran cannot safely extend itself to defend the entire region or risk exposing major vulnerabilities to US attacks. For now I think this is the real threat - Israeli expansion in the region.
I am curious as to what will come from the meeting between Xi and Putin this week. Watching what changes in Ukraine after this meeting will give us some insight into how well China is weathering the resource crisis
I agree that in material costs the US is in a better position to wait it out - however, most of the wars waged by amerikkka throughout history have ended due to mounting domestic political cost. What is interesting now is that alot of former alies of the US regime are turning against it publicly, so it might be that even if they could win the game of chicken in theory - it is too high of a cost politically.
I agree that Israel seems to have accelerated their expansionist project, it is very interesting to see politicians in my region (EU) continue to try and justify it. I wonder if this will be the final nail in the coffin for the perceived “humane & liberal values” that the broader western conscious still attributes our states. (obviously most organized people now it’s a sham, but you’d be surprised the shift that has occured in the minds of the general un-organized populace these last few years)
We’re definitely gonna see more violence, unfortunately.
JPMC is pretty sure that the US needs a “solution” that “reopens” Hormuz by early June. That cuts both ways, more pressure to find a military solution and greater risk of any miscalculation or failure. The safest play is to keep the blockade on the blockade going and say that Iran is being crippled.
It looks like there’s very little room for a negotiated solution but a long slow drawdown that ends somewhere both sides can accept without ever declaring an agreement doesn’t seem insane to me. It’s face saving for the US and Iran collecting tolls and controlling Hormuz is pretty good for them.
Or Iran could reach a breakthrough advancement in its nuclear program that makes this war kinda pointless.
From HB news mega (post body, “Stuck In A (Thucydides) Bear Trap”)
spoiler
more like thucydideez nuts, gottem
Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.
As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.
preamble
Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you’re gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they’re so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I’ve stated before, I don’t personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don’t know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.
Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran’s new tolling mechanism.
China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it’s becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from “almost implausible” to “hilariously absurd”. Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.
Source: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/11648191 (post body)
And so it begins - reject the aviation class, commence THE CENTURY OF THE MOLE
❗️Saudi Arabia expands Red Sea shipping routes amid Hormuz disruptions
Saudi Ports Authority Mawani has launched a new shipping service connecting the ports of Jeddah, Salalah, and Djibouti with a capacity of 1,730 standard containers, according to Saudi state TV.
The service is aimed at strengthening maritime trade links between the kingdom and global ports.
The move comes as Saudi Arabia accelerates alternative Red Sea shipping corridors amid disruptions tied to the US-Israeli war on Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier this week, Mawani also launched the “Red Sea Express” route linking Jeddah and Yanbu with Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Jordan’s Aqaba.
(Al-Arabiya)
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/60100
Saudi port authority unveils new Red Sea shipping service to bypass Hormuz The move aims to ‘enhance connectivity’ by linking the ports of Jeddah, Oman, and Djibouti
💠 Note / Yadollah Rabiei
“Iranian Doctrine”; Power from the heart of the night, deterrence against the enemy🔹 We are passing the eighty-second night of the “Third Imposed War.” The skies of Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and hundreds of other cities and villages witness every night a scene that does not fit into any of the usual rules of modern wars.
🔹 Streets full of people who are not there for celebration or protest, but to “pledge allegiance to the leadership” and “support the armed forces.” This scene is not an ordinary “march”; this is the formation of the “Iranian Doctrine.”
🔹 1. A doctrine that does not fear “infiltration”
In classical deterrence theories, power was summarized in three components: “military capability,” “resilient economy,” and “strategic alliance with allies.” But what is seen on Iran’s war nights is a fourth component that has disrupted the equations: “the voluntary and repeated presence of the people at the heart of the threat.” This presence, unlike daily political gatherings, occurs in the dead of night and at hours when the enemy’s psychological warfare to convey the “loneliness of the regime” peaks.🔹 2. Producing “collective power” at minimal cost
Every gathering and nightly march multiplies the enemy’s operational costs.
For Western analysts, calculating the “cost-benefit ratio” of aggression against Iran is no longer based solely on air defense and missiles. The new question is: “Can a territory be occupied where every night at least 10 million people take to the streets as a sign of allegiance to the leadership and the Commander-in-Chief?” This is the “people’s deterrence” that has no place in conventional asymmetric warfare theories.🔹 3. Defeat of the “narrative war” in the first hours.
In the first weeks of the war,
The think tanks of the Zionist regime had designed three scenarios:
“Gap between leadership and people”
“Erosion of armed forces’ morale due to casualties”
“Wave of economic protests simultaneous with attacks”
But what happened was the complete opposite of these scenarios. The nightly gatherings turned allegiance to the leadership into a “national shout.”🔹 4. From the “Third Imposed War” to the “Enemy’s Forced Peace”
The enemy entered the war to “impose its will”; but faced the “Iranian Doctrine.” Historical experience has shown that whenever Iran has been able to tie the “people” to the “national security zone,” the equations have shifted in its favor.🔹 The Third Imposed War, with “nightly presence,” has displayed a new depth of this doctrine.
This doctrine sends a clear message to the White House and Kiryat: “No longer can you bring the Islamic Republic to its knees with sanctions, military threats, or psychological operations.”🌐 Read the full text here (https://sepahnews.ir/00099w)
💠 Passage of 31 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships coordinated by the IRGC Navy through the Strait of Hormuz
🔹 According to the Public Relations of the IRGC Navy, in the past 24 hours, 31 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination and security provided by the IRGC Navy.
🔹 The IRGC Navy announced: Despite the aggression of the terrorist US military and the unprecedented insecurity created throughout the Persian Gulf, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC Navy endeavored to establish a clear and safe route for passage and the continuation of global trade.
❗️Covert UN mission successfully rescues millions of historical Palestinian refugee documents from Gaza
A highly sensitive, ten-month clandestine operation by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) successfully evacuated millions of historical archival documents from the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem, safeguarding generations of Palestinian records. The Guardian reported on 14 May that the complex mission involved dozens of UN staff members across four countries racing against intense bombardment, cyberattacks, and shifting frontlines to prevent the permanent destruction of the files.
The rescued documents, many dating back to 1948, include original refugee registration cards, birth certificates, and land records that provide the sole legal and historical evidence of displacement for hundreds of thousands of stateless Palestinians.
The first phase of the 10-month operation began under heavy fire after Israeli forces ordered the evacuation of UNRWA’s Gaza City headquarters in 2024. Turning down appeals to leave the files behind, a small team utilized rented pickup trucks to smuggle the paper archives south to Rafah over three dangerous trips, eventually moving them into Egypt using international staff who hand-carried the records past border checkpoints.
Concurrently, as hostile protests and arson attacks targeted UNRWA’s East Jerusalem compound ahead of new Israeli legislation banning the agency, staff members secretly moved a parallel set of historic archives across the border into Jordan.
The entire collection has since been compiled in Amman, where an extensive digitization project funded by Luxembourg is currently underway in a secure facility. More than 50 personnel are working to scan roughly 30 million individual documents by hand, a meticulous process that experts estimate will take another two years to fully complete.
According to historians cited by The Guardian, the preservation of this national archive is critical for any future legal resolutions to the conflict, ensuring that Palestinians retain access to their verified family lineages and documented histories despite the total destruction of physical infrastructure inside the Palestinian territories.
We need more UNRWA like people in the UN.
This is actually incredible news. Given their effort to erase every aspect of Palestinian history, heritage, and culture, having these records slip through their fingers is a setback for ‘Israel’. Well done to the UNRWA staff involved, they pulled this off under genuine threat of violence and persecution by the zionist entity. This way, these documents remain a potential legal threat-in-being to the apartheid colony.
For every bit of fecklessness displayed by the UN as a whole, it’s important to recognize many of the workers with organizations like UNRWA are genuinely committed to their mission statement and willing to put their lives on the line for those ideals. Very noble people indeed, and they should be commended at every opportunity.
🥺 Incredible work on their part. Thank you for sharing about it.
The fascists will always try and fail to erase history.
❗️US threatens to revoke Palestinian UN delegation visas over ambassador’s bid for UN General Assembly vice presidency
NPR reported on 20 May that a sensitive but unclassified US State Department cable instructed US officials in Jerusalem to pressure Palestinian officials into withdrawing Palestinian UN Ambassador Riyad Mansour’s candidacy for one of the 21 vice president positions at the UN General Assembly, warning of possible consequences including visa revocations for the Palestinian delegation to the United Nations.
The cable, dated 19 May and obtained by NPR, said Mansour “has a history of accusing Israel of genocide,” and claimed his candidacy “fuels tension” and undermines President Donald Trump’s so-called Gaza peace plan.
The cable warned that “Congress will take it extremely seriously” and stated that “it would be unfortunate to have to revisit any available options,” referring to a previous 2025 decision by the Trump administration to waive visa sanctions on Palestinian officials assigned to the PLO’s UN Observer Mission in New York.
NPR noted that the threat is considered unprecedented, particularly given the 1947 UN Headquarters Agreement, which generally bars the US from blocking UN officials from entering New York.
Former senior State Department official Hady Amr told NPR the move was “extremely rare” outside cases such as espionage or election interference, calling it “counterproductive” because diplomats are needed “to work out problems between countries.”
The State Department told NPR it takes its obligations under the UN Headquarters Agreement seriously but declined to comment on specific visa matters.
The report also noted that Mansour had already withdrawn a previous bid for president of the UN General Assembly earlier this year after US lobbying efforts.
Elections for vice president positions are scheduled for 2 June, with Palestinian representatives remaining on the Asia-Pacific candidate list alongside countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mongolia.
The cable reportedly warned of a “worst-case scenario” in which a Palestinian vice president could preside over high-profile UN sessions.
NPR highlighted Mansour’s increasingly prominent role at the UN, including emotional speeches condemning the killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and repeated calls for a ceasefire.
Lebanon’s new ‘17 May 1983’ situation: US steers Beirut toward a pact with Israel
Direct talks have not stopped Israel’s war on Lebanon; they are testing whether a weakened state can be turned against the resistance under the cover of ‘stability.’
By Tamjid Kobaissy
EXCLUSIVE: Hezbollah warns direct talks with Israel ‘threaten Lebanese coexistence’ MP Ibrahim al-Moussawi slammed authorities for meeting face-to-face with Israeli officials after vowing not to ‘negotiate under fire’
❗️US escalates pressure campaign on Lebanon with sanctions targeting Hezbollah MPs, security officials, and Iran envoy
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Thursday against Hezbollah MPs Hassan Fadlallah, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, and Ibrahim al-Moussawi; former minister Mohammad Fneish; Amal Movement security officials Ahmad Baalbaki and Ali Safawi; Lebanese Army intelligence officer Samer Hamadi; General Security officer Khattar Nassereddine; and Iran’s ambassador-designate to Lebanon Mohammad Reza Sheibani.
Washington accused the sanctioned figures of enabling Hezbollah and obstructing efforts to disarm the Lebanese resistance. The US State Department claimed the individuals were advancing “the Iranian regime’s malicious agenda in Lebanon” and preventing what it described as a path toward “peace, stability, and prosperity.”
The sanctions also targeted Lebanese security and military officials accused by Washington of abusing their positions to benefit Hezbollah, while the US accused Iranian diplomat Sheibani of “violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.”
The State Department reiterated the US-Israeli demands for the full disarmament of Hezbollah and the restoration of the Lebanese government’s “exclusive authority over security matters throughout the country,” amid ongoing US pressure on Beirut.
❗️Israel’s daily raids threaten to destroy southern Syria’s farming lifeline
Israeli occupation forces intensified attacks on southern Syria on 19 May, shelling farmland near Taranja in northern Quneitra and carrying out repeated incursions into agricultural areas and populated villages in Quneitra and Daraa, The New Arab reported.
Local sources said Israeli operations have become almost daily, spreading panic among residents and farmers who fear a wider Israeli escalation.
The attacks now threaten the agricultural season, the main source of income for many families in the border region.
The latest attacks followed Israeli raids on 18 May in Wadi al-Raqqad near Jomla, where tanks and military vehicles advanced into the area.
Israeli forces also fired shells and machine guns near Tel Ahmar, crossed the Ofania–Khan Arnabah road, and raided several homes in Al-Asha before withdrawing.
❗️Netanyahu coalition moves to dissolve Knesset as Haredi draft crisis pushes Israel toward early elections
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition on 20 May passed a preliminary bill to dissolve the Knesset, opening the door to early elections amid a deepening dispute with ultra-Orthodox (haredi) parties over legislation that would determine whether more haredi men can continue to avoid military service, according to The Jerusalem Post.
The bill passed unanimously, 110–0, and must still clear three additional readings before taking effect. If approved, it would move elections forward from the currently scheduled date of 27 October to as early as September or mid-October, since Israeli law requires at least 90 days between the dissolution of parliament and a national vote.
At the center of the crisis is the highly controversial haredi draft bill. Netanyahu has been trying to preserve his coalition by advancing legislation that would largely satisfy ultra-Orthodox parties, whose communities have long received broad exemptions from compulsory military service. The issue has become increasingly explosive as the Israeli army warns of a severe manpower shortage after more than two years of war.
The ultra-Orthodox Degel Hatorah faction says it no longer trusts Netanyahu and continues to support dissolving the Knesset. By introducing the bill itself rather than allowing the opposition to do so, the coalition retains greater control over the timing of elections and over any final legislative push before a possible collapse of the government.
🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 — Hezbollah unveils an “Ababil” helicopter and claims to carry out 3 operations with it during the day.
@SimurghRes
Captagon trade on Syria–Jordan border skyrockets under control of Israel-backed militias: Report
Druze militias opposed to the new authorities in Damascus have been receiving arms and financial support from Israel since the fall of Assad’s government
