This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Watch this so you know who is truly defending us… who our men are… the Israeli enemy tries to break us with these scenes… But instead, it revealed something else entirely: how steadfast these young men are, how deeply rooted they stand in their land.
When you see them, you understand just how profoundly the Lebanese authorities have failed their people. This is what strength in negotiation looks like… this resilience, this unshakable faith.
They fight for me and for you until their very last breath.
Zionist Israel released this footage from Bint Jbeil to break us but by God, it filled us with pride. These heroes make us feel capable of reaching the moon.
We bow our heads in reverence to you 💛💛💛
Video in https://t.me/Marwa_OsmanLB/5545
Warning: the video shares the last moments of some brave Hezbollah fighters. It is NSFW.
That looked like close quarter combat and they bombed the whole building, including friendlies!?
They would have pulled everyone out first presumably. However I’m seeing some people say on telegram this might be old footage from Palestine
🇮🇷 “The Iranian foreign minister will not hold any negotiations with the Trump regime in Islamabad and will merely convey Iran’s considerations and views regarding the end of the war to the Pakistani side. This meeting is a response to General Asim Munir’s trip to Tehran, and I have been informed that no negotiations with any Americans are planned during this visit.” - Professor Marandi
🇮🇷🇺🇸| According to Raja News, quoting Iranian officials, negotiations with the US, under current circumstances and conditions, have been forbidden by the Iranian Leader.
From Sony Thang and it is relevant information that will help to understand Iran’s decision to demand transit fees in a different currency to the USD. It will also help the titanical task of creating an alternative to USD which is what BRICs countries are doing.
The most important thing America exported in the post-WWII period was not consumer goods.
It was not “democracy”.
It was not culture, though that came close.It was the dollar.
The Bretton Woods system made the dollar the global reserve currency.
Every country that wants to trade internationally needs dollars.
Every commodity, especially oil, is priced in dollars.
Every country must maintain dollar reserves.
The United States can run trade deficits indefinitely because demand for its currency is structurally guaranteed by the architecture of global trade.
This is called “exorbitant privilege,” a phrase coined by a French finance minister in the 1960s who understood exactly what it meant.
It means the United States gets to consume more than it produces, indefinitely, because the world needs its currency.
It means sanctions are a weapon of mass economic destruction because cutting a country off from dollar systems is cutting it off from the global economy.
It means the Federal Reserve’s domestic monetary policy decisions, interest rate changes made for American economic reasons, immediately affect the debt servicing costs of every country that has borrowed in dollars, which is most of them.
No one elected the Federal Reserve to govern the global economy.
It governs the global economy anyway.
The ladder was not just industrial policy.
The ladder was also this.
The ladder was the whole system.Source -> https://xcancel.com/nxt888/status/2048338681656979862#m
🇺🇸| Many people in the US, including white Americans, are financially supporting the assailant through buying his published games (he was a game developer).
Looks like Trump is enjoying unpopular support in his country.
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/21266
LOOOL
Prepare yourselves with the agitprop and orgs, folks. It is going to get tougher for a lot of people. Expect price hikes or even worse which is failed harvest seasons.
📸 Oil prices rise back up to $106 USD per barrel as Iran continues to limit passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg: Chinese exporters have started raising prices on everything from swimwear to air conditioners, as the Iranian war has led to a rise in the costs of oil-related inputs, indicating that global inflation in consumer goods prices is likely to accelerate.
Lebanese lawyer Ahmad Alawiyye was killed in action in southern Lebanon. He had decided to leave his law practice to go south and confront the Israeli invasion.
https://xcancel.com/InfosLiban/status/2046727652799619504#m
Honor and glory to this brave fighter.
I bet he would have been a damn good lawyer with that level of actual integrity. RIP comrade.
🫡 rest in power, may your sacrifice be not in vain, fida’i
Is that Arabic? Regardless, it was a shame that someone like that died.
The word fidāʾiyy (Arabic: فدائي; plural: فدائيون fidāʾiyyūn (standard) or فدائيين fidāʾiyyīn (informal), often rendered in English as ‘fedayeen’) means ‘sacrifice’ or ‘one who sacrifices himself’ (a literal translation of fidāʾiyyīn might be “martyrs”). The Palestinian fedayeen are militants or guerrillas of a nationalist orientation from among the Palestinian people. Most Palestinians consider the fedayeen to be “freedom fighters”.
It is tragic, LZ. If there were no Zionist Entity, there would be no need of people like him dying.
❗️An IDF reserve soldier was seriously injured today as a result of an explosive drone attack
He was injured in a Hezbullah FPV attack. The soldier is likely in coma/ICU with a few missing limbs
From Brian Berletic:
🇺🇸/IRAN - Is the US Blockade on Iran Working?
I fully understand what people are saying about the US blockade “failing” based on claims by both the US Navy and the US government itself.
The US Navy and US gov are saying they have completely stopped maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Analysts are saying this is false - and they are right.
HOWEVER… looking at the same data presented along with these claims- while the US has failed to fully stop Iranian exports - it has just about halved them.
CENTCOM says they’ve turned away around 30 ships and has seized at least 2 more.
Western media claims have admitted around or perhaps more than 30 ships have passed through the blockade.
Some might say halving Iranian energy exports is not a big deal and that Iran could survive this. That is likely true - but there is a bigger picture to consider.
Zooming Out in Both Time and Space
If you zoom out and look at oil/gas exports from both Iran and the entire Middle East to China - you can see the trend taking shape - the slow and approaching near total strangulation of energy exports to China.
These graphs show (based on Western media claims) Iranian oil exports, Middle East oil exports, and Middle East gas exports to China at 3 points - pre-war, the “ceasefire,” and the implementation of the ongoing US blockade on Iran.
As I said before the war started, and as soon as the US called up the USMC MEU - the goal was and is now obviously to close off all energy exports from the Middle East to China - and that is what the data shows.
Of course the US also seeks to harm and ultimately topple Iran - but it is also pursuing this other much higher priority - undermining China.
It is being done incrementally and it is clearly succeeding so far.
China has prepared to weather this blockade - but it is not certain whether they are prepared to challenge or break the blockade itself.
The Realistic Nature of Blockades
It is also important to understand that blockades are not switches that are either completely on or completely off - or static in nature.
Throughout history blockades are announced and imposed - often incrementally - and then tested by those being blockaded resulting in fluctuations over time in terms of efficacy.
There will be efforts to circumvent or break the blockade by Iran and its allies, and there will be attempts by the US to adapt to and overcome these efforts.
Based on superficial daily “noise” from US President Trump and CENTCOM - the US blockade has “failed.”
Based on data regarding pre-war, post-ceasefire, and post-US blockade energy exports from the region - the blockade is most certainly succeeding in driving energy exports from the region to China toward zero.
Yet the US is by no means in an unassailable position.
It is simply capitalizing on operational momentum and initiative - plenty has been done by the multipolar world to prepare for precisely this scenario and it remains to be seen whether or not US momentum and initiative is enough to overcome these preparations.
There are many numbers floating out there - so I will share some others with you - before the conflict oil from the entire region in barrels per day were estimated to be as high as 6.5 million - now down to around 4.5 million today.
That number includes Iranian oil.
The amount of Iranian oil getting through will depend on how many tankers are actually making it all the way to China vs. those turned backed or seized by the US.
There are no alternative numbers for gas - most sources agree gas shipments are nearly completely shut down from the Middle East to China.
Map to contextualize what is happening:
Source -> https://xcancel.com/BrianJBerletic/status/2047175377357856963#m
I guess my question is, supposing this analysis is on point, what would be the end goal? Provoke China into a war? It’s not like China is gonna sit there passively forever and Iran is far from passive themselves. And to my understanding, China’s dependency on energy imports is a lot less than some of the US’s own allies, with a lot more resiliency in things like solar and so on. Also, IIRC, when the US tried to cripple China on computer chip stuff, China adapted and used what it had on hand more efficiently. It’s hard to imagine them being able to do much about China’s trajectory at this point without bombing it and China is more than capable militarily to fend them off if it comes to that. So is it simply desperation or is there something I’m not seeing here?
Well, the most perceivable end goal that I see from his analysis is to inform regular people. As for China, I have seen in XHS people talking about the gas prices and some others being happy about their EVs.
Regarding China’s dependency, it is still important for the analysis. Let me use a small graph from 2025 to contextualize this.
If we add Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq; we get a total of 31.7%. Now, we are missing to add the Venezuelan(4% aprox according to Reuters) and Iranian oil(13.4% aprox according to Reuters) to the mix to see how much is the total of oil that is no longer being shipped to China to see the total impact. Using this percentage for each respectively, we get a total of 49.1%. That’s a serious impact.
However, just like you, I am confident that China will be able to bypass this.
Sorry, I meant the end goal of the US blockade, not the end goal of the analysis, I should have clarified that. But thank you for the further context on this, that does indeed sound significant and I will look at it more closely tomorrow. 🙏
Do I smell some weirdly arrogant undertones here, or is it just me?
Hmm, I haven’t sensed any arrogant undertones.
Although, I do sense frustration because his audience or the people that he is getting feedback from are not understanding his analysis.
Yeah, that is the sense i get from most of his analyses too. He is frustrated and has a bit of a pessimistic (but still realistic) streak because so much of his analysis predicting the US empire would get more aggressive as it declines has come true.
But what we also have to remember is that he is not a communist. He may have very good analysis grounded in reality, but he is lacking the revolutionary optimism of a Marxist-Leninist.
That makes a difference in how someone is able to emotionally process all of this.
