Just remember that we are almost at the tipping point of ~15% acceptance, after that adoption of new technologies happens pretty fast.
19% of new cars sold in Europe in 2021 were EVs, a huge jump from 3-4% only two years prior. And then it really took off, right? Well, no. 2023 will end up at ~24% and the first half of next year will be similar. Europe will then see another sudden jump to ~33% in 2025, followed by another stretch of penetration increasing only 1-2% per year.
You can’t apply consumer-driven “S Curve” math to EV adoption. The irregular “stair step” pattern is driven by legislators and regulators. If you want to forecast EV sales look to them, not cell phone adoption curves.
19% of new cars sold in Europe in 2021 were EVs, a huge jump from 3-4% only two years prior. And then it really took off, right? Well, no. 2023 will end up at ~24% and the first half of next year will be similar. Europe will then see another sudden jump to ~33% in 2025, followed by another stretch of penetration increasing only 1-2% per year.
You can’t apply consumer-driven “S Curve” math to EV adoption. The irregular “stair step” pattern is driven by legislators and regulators. If you want to forecast EV sales look to them, not cell phone adoption curves.