if you ever wonder how I write Pivot, it’s a bit like this. The thing below is not a written text, it’s a script for me to simulate spontaneity, so don’t worry about the grammar or wording. But how are the ideas? And what have I missed?

(Imagine the text below with links to previous Pivots where I said a lotta this stuff.)

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‘AI is here to stay’ - what does that mean? What are you actually claiming?

When some huge and stupid public AI disaster hits the news, AI pumpers will dive in to say stuff like “you have to admit, AI is here to stay.”

Well, no I don’t. Not unless you specify what you actually mean when you say that. Like, what is the claim they’re making? Herpes is here to stay too, but you probably wouldn’t brag about it.

We’re talking about the generative AI stuff here. Chatbots. Image slop generators. That sorta thing. Sometimes they’ll claim chatbots are forever because machine learning works for X-ray scans. These people are wasting your time.

Are they saying that OpenAI and its friends, all setting money on fire, will be around forever? Ha, no. That is not economically possible. They’re machines for taking money from venture capitalists and setting it on fire. The chatbots are just the excuse for that. They’re not sustainable businesses. Maybe after the collapse there will be a company that buys the name “OpenAI” and dances around wearing it like a skin.

Are they saying there’s a market for generative AI and so it’ll keep going when the bubble pops? Sure maybe there’ll be a market - but as I’ve been saying for a while now, the prices will be 5x or 10x what they are now if it has to pay its way as a business.

Are they saying you can always run a local model at home? Sure, and about 0.0% of chatbot users do that. In 2025, the home models are painfully slow even on a high end box. No normal people are going to do this. It’s like if they said “see, radio is here forever!” and it was actually five guys talking with Morse Code.

I’ve seen claims that the tools will still exist. I mean sure, the transformer architecture is actually useful for stuff. But mere existence isn’t much of a claim either.

So. If someone says “AI is here to stay,” nail them down on what the heck the precise claim is they’re making. Details. Numbers. What do you mean by being here? What would failure mean? Get them to make their claim properly.

I’ll make a prediction for you, give you an example. When, not if, the venture capitalists and their money pipeline go home and the chatbot prices multiply by ten, the market will collapse. There will be some small providers left. it will be technically not dead yet!! but the bubble will be extremely over. The number of people running an LLM at home will still be negligible.

It’s possible there will be something left after the bubble pops. AI boosters like saying it’s JUST LIKE the dot-com bubble!!! But i haven’t really been convinced by the argument “Amazon lost money for years, so if OpenAI just sets money on fire then it must be Amazon.”

Will inference costs — 80%-90% of compute load — come down? Sure, eventually. Will it be soon enough? Well, Nvidia just had a bad chip generation and is going back to its old chips but putting more of them in modules with heating problems.

So there you go. If you wanna say “but AI is here to stay!” tell us what you mean in detail. Stick your neck out. Give your reasons.