Recent talk about who deserves the title of the best goalkeeper in the world (or the league) inspired me to have a close look at some stats to try and find a (somewhat) definitive answer.
I looked at three different statistics over the past five seasons of the Premier League and ranked every goalkeeper in each category for each season, resulting in an overall ‘score’ for each player based on their average rank in each category.
The three categories the rankings are based on are: shot stopping, distribution, and aerial command.
The statistics used to quantify these qualities were: post-shot expected goals minus goals conceded per 90 mins which represents the average number of goals a keeper prevents (or fails to prevent) by making saves during a game; launch completion percentage which represents the success rate of a goalkeeper’s long passing (passes over 40 yards); and percentage of crosses stopped which represents the percentage of crosses into the box that were successfully intercepted by the goalkeeper.
I included goalkeepers who have played at least 13 games in a season for at least three of the past five seasons, so the current season is excluded as are goalkeepers who have only played two seasons or have only featured sporadically.
To share some results for each category:
The best shot stoppers over the past 5 Premier League seasons:
- Alisson
- Bernd Leno
- Hugo Lloris
The best distributors:
- Ederson (no surprise)
- Alisson
- Rui Patricio
And the keepers with the best command of their box:
- Emi Martinez
- Nick Pope
- Robert Sanchez
And if you were wondering who the worst goalkeepers might be:
Worst shot stopper: Illan Meslier
Worst distributor: Illan Meslier
Wort aerial command: David de Gea (with an average ranking of 21.2 out of 21.6)
Finally, I combined the three categories to produce an overall ranking for the best all-round goalkeepers. I gave double weighting to shot-stopping as it’s generally considered the most important quality for a goalkeeper and relies less on external factors (e.g. a target-man striker helping to boost long-pass percentage by winning more aerial duels, or a deep defensive line boosting stopped cross percentage by inviting pressure and more crosses closer to the 6-yard box).
This produced a clear top three who all scored fairly closely and are comfortably ahead of the rest of the league’s goalkeepers:
- Alisson
- Ederson
- Emi Martinez
An honourable mention goes to David Raya, who would be ranked number 1 based on his first two seasons in the Premier League if I didn’t set the threshold at a minimum of three seasons - as an Arsenal fan I hope to update this at the end of the season and see Raya at the top :)
The worst keeper is, unsurprisingly, Illan Meslier. The second worst? Aaron Ramsdale.
(statistics were sourced from fbref.com)
Cheers for this! I think Ramsdale’s best attribute is actually his short passing out the back and decision making on the ball so that won’t show in this. That’s also the part that Raya has struggled with so far.
Having said that, shows how poor the rest of Ramsdale’s game is, if Raya can improve his short passing/decision making out the back then no one will question it anymore.
Ramsdale let’s in saveable shots or stays rooted to his spot instead of coming out from crosses so it doesn’t look like he’s having a bad game when actually he is. Raya on the other hand has made saves that’s gone unnoticed but his nervy passes out the back are blatantly bad so the criticism is heightened