Marwan Barghouti, the veteran Fatah leader languishing in Israeli captivity for nearly 25 years, has signaled his determination to contest the next Palestinian presidential election. Sources close to the imprisoned figure confirmed to Sky News Arabia that Barghouti remains steadfast in his candidacy and has explicitly rejected any notion of withdrawing from the race should polls finally be held.

His potential run surfaces as the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority faces intense pressure from western powers to move toward long-stalled elections. While current President Mahmoud Abbas has signaled a potential path for parliamentary and presidential ballots, the move is viewed by many as a calculated response to external demands rather than a genuine shift in the authority’s exclusionary governing style.

Barghouti continues to command significant public support across the occupied territories, frequently outperforming both the Fatah old guard and rival factions in polling. As his family reports escalating abuse and physical decline within Israeli detention, his supporters increasingly view him as a necessary figure to break the long-standing leadership vacuum and restore a sense of unified national direction.

Image is of rescue efforts at a damaged residential complex in Caracas on June 25th.

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Weekly preamble in spoiler tags below.

preamble

The situation regarding both Iran and global oil markets is getting even more complicated, and that’s without even including the regular injections of disinformation from people like Barak Ravid and Trump himself. In my current estimation, the negotiations are proceeding as if both sides would rather see a deal than not. At the very least, there have certainly been enough blatant violations of the MoU articles that Iran would be fully justified to end negotiations altogether, and yet they are not, which must mean that they really do want a deal. Until a few days ago, these were mainly issues that Iran has been prepared to show… “flexibility” on (others might say “cowardice”), such as Zionist aggression against southern Lebanon. Both at the start of the April ceasefire and at the start of the MoU, they made Lebanon out to be a red line issue, but ultimately seemed convinced by the US saying to them, via backchannels, that they’ll yank the leash back on their mangy, rabid dog. Therefore, it’s safe to conclude that Iran, in practice, either only symbolically cares about Lebanon as the number of buildings destroyed by the Zionists is now climbing into the tens of thousands, or is confident in Hezbollah’s ability to withstand assaults and eventually push back the Zionists to the border.

However, very recently, the fighting has once again come closer to home for Iran, with renewed, albeit limited, exchanges of fire in the general area of Hormuz. This all stems from an unfortunate contradiction that Iran has wandered into with regard to Oman. In short: their legal argument for why they should be able to extract tolls/service fees from shipping through Hormuz relies on the concept of Hormuz being part of their territorial waters and not international waters, which is literally true. However, it is also possible to transit Hormuz entirely through Oman’s territorial waters too, and, critically, Oman has not shown any serious interest in charging a toll, and is letting shipping pass freely. Oman is also much less able to seriously withstand foreign assaults than Iran, meaning their position is precarious - side with Iran, and risk a Western military assault that destroys them; side with the US, and risk Hormuz never truly reopening because the IRGC will not tolerate ships bypassing their authority. So, Iran is now legally stuck: to have a toll, it must find a way to argue that territorial waters are important when it applies to them, but aren’t important when it applies to Oman. Or, of course, to somehow convince Oman to set up their own toll, in face of the dangers.

So far, the result of this has been Iran asserting, both verbally and through drones and missiles, that transit through the Oman channels is, at least during the period of the MoU, illegitimate. This has squashed hopes by many analysts that Hormuz flows would return to normal very soon - after a very brief peak, these numbers now seem to be descending to near-wartime levels. This is happening as the US’s reserves continue to drain at a frightening rate. That being said, Iranian oil tankers are getting out in large numbers and reaching foreign markets, so it’s not as if Iran is solely being disadvantaged by the current situation. It’s even possible that Iran is waiting for enough of these ships to reach Eastern Asia before they plan to restart the war. I’m unsure if this is actually likely, but I’ve seen several others suggest it, and it does make sense to at least make the most of the current lack of blockade while you figure out if the US is actually going to give in to any of your demands.

Over in Ukraine, the situation seems to be slowly heating up. It’s always hard for me personally to figure out the seriousness of the statements of the Ukrainians and the Russians - you’ll look back on a year of exaggerated threats and bold statements and promises of grand offensives and threats of nuclear war and yet, on the battlefield, all you see is fairly standard attrition and positional warfare. Anyway: there’s been much ado about Ukrainian attacks into Russia proper over the last few months and whether it’s having an impact on their economy (not particularly), wartime production (not at all), and social fabric (kinda). However, the rumors of Belarus getting more directly involved in the war - whether they want to or not - are increasing in intensity, with Ukraine threatening that they’ll fire on Belarusian border military equipment if it isn’t withdrawn. Also, the Russian hardliners seem to really want to start attacking European military production supplying Ukraine, though Putin appears to have squashed those desires. But at the end of the day, the attrition and territorial advancements continue to convincingly favor Russia.

And lastly, the numbers of the aftermath of the recent earthquakes in Venezuela are rolling in, with ~1500 dead, ~750 buildings damaged and collapsed, and many thousands of people affected and being assisted by the government. From the footage I’ve seen, it’s quite disturbing, and obviously not coming at a great time for Venezuela geopolitically either.

According to Kan 11 military correspondent Itay Blumenthal, senior officials in the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate and Southern Command have allegedly warned Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir that Hamas’s military wing is rebuilding its capabilities in preparation for another war.

The officials said Hamas is producing hundreds of explosive devices and anti-tank missiles each month, recruiting fighters aged 18 to 22, attempting to smuggle drones and communications equipment from the Sinai, and rebuilding its underground infrastructure across Gaza. They also said Hamas has recently resumed training Nukhba (elite) fighters.

According to the report, the officials warned Zamir that “Hamas is strong on the ground; no one is threatening it.”

I just find it very funny how some of these channels just stack buzzwords onto eachother to create a point. Like the general thesis that the Reformist government is already unpopular and losing more popularity is true, but meaningless words like “liberal globalists” are just eyerolling. The dynamics of the Iranian bourgeoisie are not exactly the same as the international bourgeoisie based in the US, as much as I may scorn them. Also, mentioning the “game of four” is kinda funny as well, as I’m pretty sure most of the other members in this channel aren’t aware of what that is referencing. Simurg is the most guilty of these random bouts of largely coherent but still off analysis.

I just wanted to share some of the editorials I sift through when posting here.

Footage has emerged from the minutes following the Trump regime’s deliberate missile strikes on Shajareh Tayibeh Elementary School in Minab, on the first day of the Epsteinist class-ordered war of aggression against Iran. Little body parts, torn clothing and blood-stained backpacks strewn everywhere. 168 children were blown to pieces!

@SimurghRes