• ttmrichter@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Problem #1: GDP measures nothing. Absolutely nothing. If I give you $10 today and you give me $10 tomorrow, we’ve increased the GDP by $20. It’s a useless number and no serious economist should be using it. It’s trivial to arrange a circle jerk that makes GDP shoot for the moon, and in authoritarian states it’s simple to arrange in a way that’s not even going to be spotted.

    Problem #2: Self-reported numbers are worthless. That’s why China’s numbers (#1 as of 2022? Pull the other one, it plays Jingle Bells!) are highly suspect and it’s also why Russia’s numbers are highly suspect. (I mean Russia’s numbers are from the same people who say that Ukraine isn’t a charnel house that’s slaughtering Russia’s youth by the thousand monthly!)

    Problem #3: This doesn’t even pass the giggle test. Boots on the ground (as in people I know who live there) in Russia say that things are going to shit there. Their aviation industry has resorted to straight-up theft to continue operations. Critical goods are starting to run low. The only people who haven’t been hit particularly badly yet are the oligarchs, and they’re starting to feel the pinch too, even.

    • nothingness@lemmy.worldOP
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      1 year ago

      #1) Since when not?

      #2) US and Europe also self-report them. Why believe them?

      #3) My boots on the ground claim precisely the opposite. And not only mine. Go - check it out and see for yourself.

      • ttmrichter@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago
        1. GDP is an easy number and because it can be so easily gamed it’s very popular with politicians. Press, too, are fucking lazy assholes and will just report whatever simple number they can cite instead of going into details. (We’ve known, incidentally, that GDP is useless and prone to abuse since 1937 at least. Possibly earlier, but it was in 1937 that Kuznets issued his blistering rebuke of it.) Replacing GDP with better metrics has been a constant thing since then, and even as early as the early '00s the WEF proposed a bunch of metrics to replace it. But GDP is a simple number which is easily gamed, so it’s favoured by politicians and journalists.

        2. The USA and Europe are far more open with their books which are independently analyzed by third parties. (Now admittedly those third parties are usually banks, so not particularly trustworthy themselves, but … read on.) Given that I’ve said from the start that it’s trivial to game, however, who says I trust their numbers? (Hint: I don’t. I just trust them slightly more than Russia’s or China’s because there’s independent review of them and the numbers’ sources are more open.)

        3. I’m going to guess you’re an expat living in an expat enclave and thus about as representative as, well, my life in China is to the average Chinese experience. My Russian boots on the ground, however, aren’t even in Moscow, not to mention an expat enclave. They’re in small towns and villages scattered in the western side of the Federation.

        • nothingness@lemmy.worldOP
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          1 year ago
          1. Then you should apply the same reasoning to US and Europe and call them fucking liears. Will you?

          2. Give me proofs. And the same - for Russia. Then - compare them. Otherwise, you would’ve said gibberish.

          3. What information do you have about me to guess that? None. In other words, you’ve again made a baseless statement.