furthering my previous guessing that there’s likely only appetite for 2, maybe 3, of these ridiculous IPOs, a number of analyst notes have started kicking around and they’re getting progressively more realistic in their outlook. saw this one this morning

Red Flag #3: The IPO is Exit Liquidity, Not Growth Capital

To justify a $2 trillion valuation, our model shows that Anthropic would have to:
 • immediately improve NOPAT margin to 10% and sustain it for the next 10 years (compared to -175% reported operating margin in 2025),
 • grow revenue by 1000% in 2026 and 100% in 2027, and
 • grow revenue 56% compounded annually from 2028-2035.

sounds ambitious. sure hope they don’t have any material risks and systematic exposures that make that harder!

In this scenario, Anthropic’s
1. revenue would reach $3.6 trillion (compared to $4.6 billion in 2025), which is 1.4x the combined TTM
revenue of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL).
2. NOPAT would reach $358 billion in 2035, compared to the company’s -$8 billion reported operating loss in 2025. For reference, $358 billion is 2.0x NVIDIA’s $184 billion and 2.6x Apple’s $136 billion in TTM NOPAT.

good thing the cost of inference is going down! sure, qwen3.8-27b is already stale and everyone needs to throw another couple hundred million at another training update, but the cost of inference! /s

personally I feel like all this shit is a continuation/outgrowth from the crypto “whitepaper” phenomenon: ~zero substantive engagement with the actual discipline in question, and “work product” (quotes intentional) equal to some claims with a “proof” thrown out as its defense

(it also continues to be part of a cultural and knowledge DDoS, which others have written better on)

thanks for confirming the third worst category of firefox fans

cool fun new totally fine AI use: extortion

seen here

handy tip: all of skeeter is open, and you can bypass the login gate with eg skyview.social

I don’t think you’re wrong on the latter bit - if these were any other shartups (or, at least, pre “AI” shartups), this would be read as a “runway extending move”. mild testament to just how much/completely the current crop of con has shifted the focus used in that world

imo all the “rahrah safety!” noises have been a figleaf to obscure that very inconvenient aspect

I don’t understand why Bill Gates still feels the need to do marketing work

because he’s actively doing works to change the world in specific (negative) ways. look into the history of gates-tied funding in nutrition programs, he’s got a bad-shit-for-humanity track record spanning well past a decade. has “just” had a better PR team than the clowns of vogue

that poster the same person who was stanning shitty ideas in KDE, they’re a walking warning label

I recall seeing bits of this (their racist treatment of black workers in the factories as well as the culture of keeping it going) kick around on twitter as far back as 2019 (iirc), so now I’m wondering - is it not widely known?

hmm, interesting that that made it as far as a news article - shows the concerns around bubble pop are … more prevalent than some would like to admit

I imagine there’s more than a few “we’ve branded ourselves AI because that’s where the money is but oh shit it’s not such a great look now…” companies out there at the moment who are working on how to update their positioning

grammarly, previously featured as a top class act as well known for, uhhhh checks notes, deeply for guzzling the slop juice, has once again decided to feature for attention

the sheer arrogance of it is pretty out there. I sure hope it doesn’t go well for them, otherwise we’ll probably see this shit be added to the slimester playbook more frequently

academic malpractice complaint viable?

I’m curious about this one, legal repercussions against the perpetrator seem pretty clearly viable (it would seem to me that Science has a viable fraud case, and Williams for probably a few too). why wouldn’t anyone do that? is that not the done thing in academia?

the network effects of reputational damage are pretty oof though :|

this shit should be regulated into the dustbin of history. relatedly, the recent release of unredacted docs from the NYT vs OpenAI case showing the clear knowledge of theft and substitution… it’s all willingly done

I don’t know enough about Chinese state security apparatus to comment about that aspect but I’ve seen some mentions of how the state there is also heavily pushing prompts everywhere, and it’s apparently just as shit a failure as it is in the western sphere…so, could be fucked either way

network access control list, but I am now definitely going to start making references to salt circles when I handle the promptfans

but, who the hell gave them $100k for this?

the third name is a vc-type, and I bet it won’t take much scratching to find that linked to our good friends and the ongoing public image adjustment campaign that’s seeing funding from a few corners

I remember this showing up here a while back

Effective altruism, a name I haven’t heard for a long time.

shit I’m a bit jealous! I can’t wait for the fucking day I no longer have to think about these fuckers

think of the monetisation opportunities!

but yeah it’s pretty weird, people are out of ideas for what to do I guess. endless growth mindset can’t have a thing just be done 🤷‍♂️

that dyson toothbrush, huh