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Joined 2 months ago
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Cake day: January 29th, 2026

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  • I’m certainly not going to argue that things aren’t bad. I’m not going to tell anyone that they’ve got it better than they think they do.

    But I believe I’ve seen the “Most Americans have less than $1,000 saved” factoid bandied about a lot in the headlines. It calls forth such a dismal picture, I’ve been a little skeptical.

    The NIRS report (PDF) clarifies that this “less than $1,000 saved” figure is based on some pretty narrow definitions of “saved.” It’s about “working-age Americans (ages 21-64),” so it includes a lot of young people with (no surprise) little or no retirement savings yet. And it’s specifically about savings in employer-organized “defined contribution” (“DC”) savings plans, chief among which is the 401(k) plan.

    If you’re a 22 year old college student with a part-time job and $5,000 in the bank, you’re likely to score $0 on this metric anyway, because you probably don’t have a 401(k) yet.

    And if you’re a 50-year-old self-employed person who owns a home and a fat Roth IRA, you can still score $0 on this metric. The wealth you’ve stashed in owning a home or a business doesn’t show up here.

    So this “less than $1,000 saved” figure isn’t really about how much wealth Americans have saved, it’s more about access to and participation in employer-organized “DC” savings plans, which have long been touted as a private-sector alternative to (and which have almost entirely replaced) pensions.

    It would absolutely be better if that figure were higher. But it gets spread around (IMHO) because of it’s emotional impact, not because it’s a particularly clear way of understanding the real-world situation.


  • I am constantly asked to explain my opinions … I am constantly harangued for proof of what I believe, and every time I hand it over there’s some sort of ham-fisted response of “it’s getting better” and “it will get even more better from here!’

    For an industry so thoroughly steeped in cold, hard rationality , AI boosters are so quick to jump to flights of fancy — to speak of the mythical “AGI” and the supposed moment when everything gets cheaper and also powerful enough to be reliable or effective.

    I don’t know what’s going to happen with “AI,” but I think this highlights an interesting pattern, one where the standards of evidence for critics and boosters are different. Certainly we’ve seen a similar phenomenon in cryptocurrencies and NFTs.

    Is it profound, is it one of those penetrating insights that you can’t stop seeing once you’ve seen it? I’m not sure. Of course enthusiasts are biased, of course their arguments are emotional and unfair.