With presidential primaries underway and a 2020 general election rematch seemingly the most likely outcome, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows former President Donald Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden in a matchup shaping up to be a close contest nationally.
The right lesson is to stop looking at only the most recent poll as if it’s a good indicator of anything. There is a reason why professional election prediction models using a weighted combination of every poll, on top of things like historical election data, while factoring in things like uncertainty and time from now until the election.
It could very well be that Trump is ahead and wins in every swing state, but you can’t reasonably forecast that by looking at any single poll, even if it happens to be the most recent one.
People should understand that Trump is almost certain to be the Republican candidate and he has a very real chance of winning. People should also understand that Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic candidate and he also has a very real chance of winning.
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads in 3 of 4 January polls.
Why it’s important to keep looking I guess, the last time I looked, the most recent polls were Morning Consult showing Trump up:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
You’re learning the wrong lesson here…
The right lesson is to stop looking at only the most recent poll as if it’s a good indicator of anything. There is a reason why professional election prediction models using a weighted combination of every poll, on top of things like historical election data, while factoring in things like uncertainty and time from now until the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias
It could very well be that Trump is ahead and wins in every swing state, but you can’t reasonably forecast that by looking at any single poll, even if it happens to be the most recent one.
People should understand that Trump is almost certain to be the Republican candidate and he has a very real chance of winning. People should also understand that Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic candidate and he also has a very real chance of winning.
No, you can’t, which is why tracking them continually is important. Tracking the trend lines and momentum up until election day is valuable.
Just to be clear: your link shows that the most recent poll is Franklin & Marshall, which has Biden ahead.
That’s what I’m saying, I should have re-checked the link. :) Entirely my fault.