You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.

Thesis:

• military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
• The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
• In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.

In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.

• The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
• every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
• IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
• These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
• the 70’s concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
• The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.