The final break in the league for a while I figure it’s time to look at what we’ve seen so far

A lot of people excited about a tight title race. By the numbers, the leaders from last year (Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United) are all doing worse while the chasing pack (Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool) are doing better resulting in a congested top 5

Results in same fixtures - 22/23 v 23/24

Everton after a horror start (no wins in 5) have actually recovered well and are the 2nd biggest improvers (with Chelsea) compared to last season. All the teams who were in a relegation battle last season, namely Everton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth are all doing better this season. Bournemouth despite only being on 9 points after 12 matches, are actually 4 points ahead compared to last seasons fixtures which seems wild.

Matchday 12 - 22/23 v 23/24

It’s intersting when you look at the table compared to last season that EVERY position up to 15th has more points than last season, 16th has the same and the bottom 4 are behind. It’s also interesting to note the difference in points after 12 rounds for some teams compared to the difference in points in the same fixtures last season.

Aston Villa for example have 13 more points after 12 rounds compared to last season but have actually only gained 2 extra points compared to results last season. Similarly, Brighton have 4 more points compared to this time last season but are down 6 points when you compare results.

I had hoped before this season started that the title race would be more open, but if you compare tables, even a KDB-less City are still roughly in the same position as before and we know how last season ended. City actually haven’t been top of the table after matchday 12 since 18/19 so being 3-4 points behind at this time of the season is kind of “normal” for them. The only time they didn’t win the league in the past 5 seasons was 19/20 when Liverpool had a 9 point gap on them (after 12 games) and didn’t lose a game until February, winning 26 from 27 games. That’s what it takes to dethrone City.

Also there is the Asian Cup AND AFCON this January which hurts Arsenal (Tomiyasu, Partey), Liverpool (Salah, Endo) and Tottenham (Son, Bissouma, Sarr) more than it does Manchester City who have 0 African or Asian players. Manchester United will also be losing Onana which should be interesting. So even more of a reason why City will most likley stroll to another league title.

When you look at the table there is a divide forming between the bottom 4 and the rest of the league. But as shown in the first table, Bournemouth are actually doing better compared to last season so if they stay on a similar trajectory, they should end up safe which means potentially for the first time since 97/98 and for only the 2nd time ever, all 3 promoted teams could drop back down.

Worst starts to a Premier League season after 12 games

I thought this seemed like the weakest the bottom of the Prem has been in a while and if you look at the stats, it is. All 3 teams currently in the bottom 3 are amongst the top 18 worst starts in Prem history. In fact, Burnley’s 4 points from 12 games is the 2nd worst start ever. Sheffield Uniteds 31 goals conceded is also the equal 2nd most conceded after 12 games and Burnley and Sheffield United’s -21 GD is again the 2nd lowest GD after 12 games ever. The only team who conceded more and had a worse GD was Barnsley in 97/98 but atleast they had 9 points at the time.

There are reasons why each team are struggling, one of which is scheduling, Burnley and Sheffield both already playing the top 4 from last season and Sheffield are yet to play a fellow promoted team. At the start of the season most people said Luton Town surprised everyone but had come up too early to survive, Sheffield United’s transfer business was questionable but Burnley would be the “Fulham” of this season and potentially finish midtable. But all 3 have a similar problem. They can’t score to save thier lives, with Burnley the lowest scorers in the league with 9 and Burnley and Sheffield United both only scoring 10. Seems like it’s going to be a long season for all 3 of them.