US EV sales have been going up every year since 2010 when the Leaf and Volt came out. Some years grow more than others. Check my reasoning here. I think 2024 will have little if any volume growth. There are more EVs to choose from than ever, but 2 things look like they could slow sales next year (starting now actually).
One, NACS: nearly every automaker has said they will switch from CCS/J1772 to NACS in 2025. So if you by a non Tesla in 2024, you are buying the last year of CCS. This is like buying Betamax during its closeout sale.
Two, interest rates. Vehicle loan rates are super high right now. Most people buy cars using financing. Higher rates means higher payments (or longer terms)… Some people might sit on the sidelines and wait for rates to drop.
Together these two could be a one two punch that slow growth in 2024.
What do you think? Are there other big factors (pro or con) fit next year?
The overall auto market is slowing down due to high interest rates. I wouldn’t read too much into the EV portion of it. EV market share has been steadily rising the last few years, and it will probably rise again next year, even if overall volume is flat or lower.