For south west BC that means warmer than normal winters. This place (and the weather channel) is predicting subzero temperatures from October to December. Even in December sub zero is pretty rare around here.
What’s going on?
Unfortunately no the extreme weather conditions right now are not really a product of El Nino, I mean they are to a degree but we have only fairly recently actually moved into an El Nino proper… what they are is a product of much more worrying extreme global sea surface temperatures that have dominated for the last several years.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
To put it another way, the big swing in chaotic weather frequency and shifts of zones of precipitation and dry zones we are experiencing right now is a much more monumental signal that El Nino will graft onto in ways that… well we aren’t really sure what ways that this interaction will happen…
Ambient temperatures have more to do with wind. Look up the polar jets stream.
Increasing the global temperature “weakens” the polar vortex causing it to have a more “wavy” shape that wobbles north/south instead of going straight east.
El Nino will contribute to this weakening which also results in more “polar winds” coming straight south, as well as “heat domes” which trap hot stagnant air.
Issue with the jet stream?
Jet stream is collapsing. Another result of climate change.
