Manchester City were overwhelming favourites for the title before the start of the season according to our supercomputer and, in truth, they still are. Pep Guardiola’s side won the title in the majority of the latest round of 10,000 season simulations.
But after two successive losses, their chances of winning the title have plummeted (relatively speaking, of course). Before the start of the season, they won the title in 90.2% of our supercomputer’s simulations; in other words, more than nine out of 10 times, City were crowned champions. Now that is down to 73.4%: less than seven and a half out of 10, or roughly three in every four times.
They are still considered massive favourites despite the fact their last two results – which came with key man Rodri absent from their midfield due to suspension – have left them two points adrift of Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the table.
But 73.4% is far lower than what it was not very long ago at all. In our mid-September predictions update, for example, City were given a 91.3% chance of winning the title, having started the season with four wins from four. What that means is that 26.6% of the time in our supercomputer’s simulations, a team other than City won the title.
So, who other than City has a chance? Our supercomputer makes Liverpool second favourites after they won 12.2% of simulations, while Arsenal are just behind on 11.8%. Arsenal had briefly been ahead of Liverpool but it is so tight between these two that Liverpool have just edged ahead again.
So, there’s a chance?
However they chose to create these probabilities, I will always have a good chuckle about: Man Utd 0.0% 😂
City starting with an 85%+ chance of winning is absolutely betting bonkers. Is the Prem the farmer’s league after all?
This opta analysis model is crap, bookies gave City about 60-65%.
That in itself is pretty damning tbh, im assuming 60-65% for City and like 15-20% both for us and Liverpool? City being 3 times more likely to win it than any of their direct competitors surely makes it a farmers league, especially when it’s about to be 4 times in a row.
Best squad + best league manager. City’s PL points avg. for last 6 seasons is 91.2 points; it’s hard to beat such consistency.
+ ref advantage
Judging from that chart they started over 90%, closer to 95%.
Farmer’s league has two parts, lack of competitiveness, and overall lack of quality. (For example Bayern have won most of the last 10 Bundesliga titles, but I’m not calling that a Farmer’s League). Yes we meet the first one, but not sure about the second one, Man City are current European champions after all. Maybe defer this one until December and we see how many qualify through to the Champions League knockouts.
If they win again this season it will be 6 of the last 7. How is that not a farmer’s league?
Farmers league means all the teams are shit. Epl is the strongest league with a doped up roid cunt winning the most
Not a farmers league
And oil baron’s league
With the only year they don’t win literally everything going wrong for them, and then they still come 2nd comfortably
Reckon our odds are 50/50. Either we win the title or we don’t
I’ll take those odds!
Binary outcomes doesn’t imply a 50-50 probability
It’s a common joke
How is Liverpool above Arsenal?
Have you seen how good their new midfield is??
So I guess this comes down to is their squad better than ours overall, and better enough to make up for a 3 point gap. Feels like that isn’t the case. Not questioning that they are not a strong side or that they won’t compete. Just my gut doesn’t feel like I agree with them being stronger than us, especially with our current 3 point advantage.
Is the article also written by the supercomputer? So much waffle…