A new poll shows President Joe Biden leading Trump 44% to 37%, with Kennedy notching 16%.
Released by Marist in partnership with NPR and PBS Newshour on Tuesday, the poll shows a five-point drop among Democrats for Biden with Kennedy in the race. Meanwhile, the survey indicates a 10-point drop among Republicans for Trump with RFK Jr. on the ticket.
If he pulls enough from Biden to cause the contingent election scenario (in which case, the incoming congress decides the winner not by voting seats, but with each state delegation able to cast 1 vote) it might not matter to the GOP if RFK pulls more from Trump than from Biden.
If you game out the probabilities- It’s very unlikely that Trump beats Biden It’s also unlikely that RFK gets enough votes to deny Biden an outright win, but is it less so? It’s very likely that the GOP will control more state delegations than the Democrats will, by virtue of their state-level gerrymanders.
The contingent election moonshot might be the GOP’s best shot at winning control of the White House in 2024
It does matter if it causes some states to flip to Biden instead of trump and give their college votes to Biden instead of trump.