Right, but if you’re watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don’t know exactly when. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong to suggest we should stop inflating the balloon to avoid the pop.
If you just say the market will crash, maybe it will or maybe it won’t. If you say that the conditions exist for a crash, and describe them accurately, you’re right whether there is a crash or not.
And if you say there’s 100% chance, not only are you likely to be wrong, you’re also a useless moron deserving of ridicule.
if you’re watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don’t know exactly when.
There are two problems with this.
1: When a lot of people are making money by inflating the balloon, telling them to stop is not going to work well.
2: If the ballon ends up taking 20 breaths to pop and you are telling them to stop every time they blow in the ballon and it doesn’t for the first 19 times, they tend to think you are the boy who cried wolf and just keep on ignoring you.
Right, but if you’re watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don’t know exactly when. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong to suggest we should stop inflating the balloon to avoid the pop.
If you just say the market will crash, maybe it will or maybe it won’t. If you say that the conditions exist for a crash, and describe them accurately, you’re right whether there is a crash or not.
And if you say there’s 100% chance, not only are you likely to be wrong, you’re also a useless moron deserving of ridicule.
There are two problems with this.
1: When a lot of people are making money by inflating the balloon, telling them to stop is not going to work well.
2: If the ballon ends up taking 20 breaths to pop and you are telling them to stop every time they blow in the ballon and it doesn’t for the first 19 times, they tend to think you are the boy who cried wolf and just keep on ignoring you.
And if you can make money by getting as close as possible to the pop while still stopping in time, many people will take that gamble