American allies see a second Trump term as all but inevitable. “The anxiety is massive.”
Fear of losing Europe’s most powerful ally has translated into a pathologically intense fixation on the U.S. presidential race. European officials can explain the Electoral College in granular detail and cite polling data from battleground states. Thomas Bagger, the state secretary in the German foreign ministry, told me that in a year when billions of people in dozens of countries around the world will get the chance to vote, “the only election all Europeans are interested in is the American election.” Almost every official I spoke with believed that Trump is going to win.
Paywall removed: https://web.archive.org/web/20240603193105/https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/06/nato-trump-europe-allies/678533/
It’s long, long past the time to be naive about this. The US political establishment is reeling from the total collapse of their precious “Israel gud” propaganda cornerstone - they will be turning towards the far-right and the violence it offers to try and shore up their security and stability.
There is no point in being anxious about whether it happens or not - but there is in preparing for when it comes.