A majority of voters still do not want either Biden or Trump to seek a second term.
Fresh off an easy victory in the New Hampshire primary, former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup, according to the latest Messenger/Harris poll conducted by HarrisX.
The poll, conducted online January 17-21 among 3,034 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 48%-41%, while 11% were undecided. The result was outside the poll’s margin of error, which was 1.8 percentage points.
Support of Biden and Trump largely broke down partisan lines. 90% of Republicans backed Trump and 82% of Democrats backed Biden. Independents supported Trump, 43%-36%, while 22% were undecided.
Biden’s job approval rating remains low. Thirty-eight percent said they approved Biden’s job performance, while 57% disapproved. More voters “strongly disapprove” of Biden (42%) than “strongly approve” (15%).
In a ballot test that included independent candidates, Trump won with 42% support, followed by Biden at 33% and Robert F. Kennedy at 12%. All other candidates were at 2% or less.
A majority of voters (66%) don’t want Biden to run for another term, including 40% of Democrats and 75% of independents. A slimmer majority (52%) also said they don’t want Trump to seek another term, including 18% of Republicans, 82% of Democrats, and 59% of Independents.
In the national Republican primary, Trump maintains a dominant lead. 74% said they would support Trump, 11% backed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and 9% backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who suspended his campaign on Sunday.
In the Democratic primary, 66% backed Biden, 6% backed author Marianne Williamson, and 5% backed Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Michigan: Biden +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Biden +6 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Pennsylvania: Biden +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Wisconsin: Trump +4, but same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins, 278 to 260.
Biden needs to pick up +10.
He could do that in Wisconsin, which Clinton famously ignored in 2016 and Biden carried in 2020.
Same for Arizona, Clinton lost it in 2016, Biden carried it in 2020.
Removed, internal US news, not world news.