• ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
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    20 days ago

    It’s hard to say when the breaking point will come. I certainly expected it to happen sooner, and I’ve learned to tamper my expectations. I think ultimately what it’ll come down to is that Ukraine will run out of manpower and the AFU will lose fighting potential. That’s what happened to the Germans in WW2. There was basically a static front for years, but then once the collapse started it unfolded at lightning speed.

    I do think having an international movement would be valuable. There needs to be a lot more worker solidarity across nations which would in turn help combat jingoism that’s so prevalent nowadays.

    • demerit@lemmygrad.ml
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      20 days ago

      They essentially have given up on Guljaipole (Makhno’s hometown), which gives russia a open hand until Dnipro and Zaporizhia and will essentially collapse the supply lines leading into the Donbass.

      • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml
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        20 days ago

        I wouldn’t jump to conclusions yet about Gulyaipole. Let’s wait another week and see what happens. They can probably scrounge up some manpower from other fronts and throw it in that direction to delay the Russians for a bit.

        Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk is all but impossible to reverse now because the Russians are entrenched but on the Zaporozhye front the Ukrainians had very little fortifications which also means that the Russians won’t have as much to take over and entrench themselves in. It’s all a question of how much Kiev wants to hollow out the other fronts in order to deny Russia the PR win of fast advances on this front.

        And if there is one thing that you can consistently rely on Kiev to do is sacrifice men and materiel for PR points. Russia understands this and creates situations that force Kiev to increase the burn rate of their resources to prevent bad PR.